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COLB Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent strategic acquisitions improve market position in California, enhancing long-term growth potential. Synergies could drive earnings and boost investor confidence.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and integration challenges from mergers may exacerbate financial distress, exposing COLB to potential downturns, especially amid economic uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance COLB continues mean-reversion near current levels.
20% chance of a bullish breakout driven by effective integration and cost synergies.
20% chance of a downturn due to lingering integration issues and market volatility.

May 14, 2025

Columbia Banking System Forecast

COLB Columbia Banking System

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COLB

MTB M & T (0.97)

PNC PNC Financial Services (0.96)

BLK Blackrock (0.95)

KKR KKR (0.94)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COLB

XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.0)

TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.01)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (0.01)

TDOC Teladoc Health (0.01)

FOLD Amicus Therapeutics (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COLB

GSL Global Ship Lease (-0.62)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.73)

EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.76)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.77)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.78)

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