COLB Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: A strong bullish case arises from improved earnings momentum and insider buying, suggesting confidence in future performance. The recent uptick in call option volumes indicates market optimism, coinciding with historical trends favoring price rebounds.


Bearish Case: The bearish case hinges on ongoing integration issues post-merger, amplified by high implied volatility in put options. Market skepticism toward the banking sector could prompt a further price decline, despite recent positive earnings reports.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance COLB remains mean-reverting near $23.

2. 25% chance of a bullish breakout to $27 driven by earnings.

3. 15% chance of downturn to $20 due to market sentiment or regulatory issues.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by purchasing COLB 11/15/2024 $25 calls and selling $27.50 calls, capitalizing on favorable IV environment. Focus on a mid-term outlook (30-90 days). This strategy offers high reward:risk with a strong probability of profit.


July 25, 2024


Columbia Banking System Forecast

COLB      Columbia Banking System











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COLB



DCOM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DCOM  Dime Community Bancshares (0.89)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.83)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.76)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.73)


RWT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWT  Redwood (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COLB



MCHP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCHP  Microchip Technology (-0.0)


INVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INVH  Invitation Homes (0.0)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.01)


HUT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUT  Hut 8 Mining (-0.01)


AXTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXTA  Axalta Coating Systems (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COLB



VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.61)


HMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMC  Honda Motor (-0.63)


KNSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KNSL  Kinsale (-0.67)


J Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   J  Jacobs Engineering Group (-0.67)


HQY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HQY  Healthequity (-0.73)





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