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ALX Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ALX might see a turnaround with new management, potential real estate developments, and underpriced strategic shifts leading to recovery.



Bearish Case: High debt levels, historical declines, and stagnation in price trends suggest continued financial strain, risking further stock devaluation.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Moderate recovery from strategic changes (40%).
  • Continued stagnation due to debt issues (35%).
  • Further decline amid refinancing stresses (25%).



Trading Oracle: Initiate short-term bearish credit spreads targeting 1-2 month expirations to leverage likely stagnation. High implied volatility increases edge, while downside protection is achieved with out-of-the-money puts.


January 15, 2025


Alexander's Forecast

ALX        Alexander's

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ALX


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (0.67)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (0.62)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.6)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.57)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.57)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALX


WVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WVE  Wave Life Sciences (0.0)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.01)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (-0.01)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.01)


V Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   V  Visa (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALX


ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (-0.38)


CORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORN  Teucrium Corn (-0.38)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.38)


APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (-0.45)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.54)







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