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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The AMAL volatility surface indicates potential price growth with favorable conditions up to $35, supported by historical upward momentum and analyst target increases. Positive sentiment around earnings can drive significant price appreciation.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility in puts, particularly for near-term expirations, signals strong market skepticism. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and negative global economic indicators could lead to a drastic price decline, especially if earnings underperform expectations.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price Surge to $36 (30%): Rebound from analyst upgrades and positive earnings reports.

2. Price Stagnation (50%): Continued flat trade between $32-$34 due to geopolitical uncertainties.

3. Price Drop to $30 or lower (20%): Driven by negative macroeconomic trends and increased volatility.

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October 24, 2024