BVN Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent strong performance in BVN (+133.2% YOY) bolstered by elevated silver demand, favorable historical trends, and a current low price-to-book ratio (1.1).


Bearish Case: Historical and recent price declines (-22.2% from two years ago), combined with mean reversion characteristics and elevated implied volatility, indicate potential for further downside.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Price increases slightly by ~1.53% amid strong silver demand and favorable fundamentals (30%)

2) Price stagnates or mean-reverts amidst uncertainty (50%)

3) Price declines due to historical trends and volatility (20%)


Trading Oracle: Implement a debit spread strategy (Helium Long Volatility) with a bullish stance, time horizon of 1-2 months. Buy $16 strike calls, sell $17 strike calls to capitalize on potential upward momentum, low price-to-book, and recent performance gains.


July 05, 2024


Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. Forecast

BVN      Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.











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