AMCR Forecast


Bullish Case: Amcor's expansion into sustainable packaging and improving financial metrics suggest a potential rise, capitalizing on environmental trends and high demand sectors.


Bearish Case: Continued insider sell-offs, unresolved labor issues, and low implied volatility signal potential prolonged underperformance amidst market uncertainties.


Potential Outcomes: High chance (60%) for stable-to-lower price movement given mean reversion. Medium chance (30%) for positive trend from sustainability efforts. Low chance (10%) for sharp declines from market shocks.


Trading Oracle: Trade bear call credit spreads by selling the $11 strikes and buying $12 strikes maturing November 2024. This strategy leverages mean-reverting history combined with low implied volatility and high bearish implied probabilities. Time outlook: 3-5 months.


July 16, 2024


Amcor Forecast

AMCR      Amcor











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ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AMCR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMCR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.53)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)





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