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AMPH Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: AMPH may capitalize on strong product performance from Baqsimi, expanding market presence and revenue potential, supported by fundamentals showing sustainable growth despite recent volatility.



Bearish Case: High levels of implied volatility and persistent insider selling suggest uncertainty and potential overvaluation, which could lead to significant price corrections if market sentiment shifts negatively.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Baqsimi's sales exceed expectations, boosting price by 60% (40%).

2) Market sentiment shifts, causing a 25% decline (30%).

3) Price stabilizes around current levels with minimal movement (30%).



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bearish credit spread by selling AMPH 12/20/2024 $45 call and buying $50 call, targeting the high implied volatility, with a projected 90% probability-of-profit due to potential downside risk from overvaluation.


November 15, 2024


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AMPH        Amphastar Pharmaceuticals

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AMPH


COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (0.87)


VLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLY  Valley National Bancorp (0.86)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (0.86)


FUBO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUBO  fuboTV (0.85)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AMPH


ACLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACLS  Axcelis (0.0)


GRWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRWG  GrowGeneration (-0.01)


SBSW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBSW  Sibanye Stillwater (-0.01)


NAIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NAIL  Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (-0.01)


BRBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BRBR  Bellring Brands (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMPH


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.81)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (-0.81)


TME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TME  Tencent Music Entertainment Group - (-0.82)


MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (-0.83)


GTE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTE  Gran Tierra Energy (-0.84)







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