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ARLP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong diversification efforts and positive past returns, with consistent dividends providing price support.

Bearish Case: High volatility and historical flat price movement signal potential downside, coupled with operational challenges.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of stabilization due to dividends; 40% chance of continued decline from operational issues; 25% chance of recovery from strategic investments.

Trading Oracle: Sell 12/19/2025 30.00 puts, buy 12/19/2025 27.50 puts to exploit high volatility in a short timeframe. A bearish outlook suggests a high probability of profit due to declining trends.

February 16, 2025

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ARLP Alliance Resource

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