Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: An anticipated breakthrough in drug development or favorable FDA regulatory news could stimulate ATHE's share price, potentially pushing it above previous resistance levels and increasing investor confidence. Historical data supports positive returns in similar scenarios.

Bearish Case: Continued financial instability and lack of funding options may undermine ATHE's operations and lead to further stock declines, possibly testing new lows. The historical return surface suggests limited upside without significant catalysts.

Potential Outcomes:

• Positive regulatory news: 30% chance for 50% price surge.
• Continued flat trading: 50% likely, minor fluctuations expected.
• Major financial decline: 20% chance, risk of dropping below $1.

Trading Oracle: Consider a credit spread strategy as the market remains bearish short-term. Sell out-of-the-money calls targeting minimal price movement in the next three months. This leverages the current low volatility and historical mean-reverting behavior of ATHE, offering high reward-risk opportunities.

November 23, 2024