Bullish Case: Known: AVES mean-reverts and is up ~12% over ~90d; the AVES return-surface ridge clusters around +4–12% for 1–2y holds (inferred support). With SPY IV mostly in a mid band and only the far-downside wing hot (known from IV surface), a gradual risk-on around next Fed/CPI/EM data (uncertain) could skew toward modest upside.

Bearish Case: Known: near-term AVES holds still have non-trivial negative-return likelihood on the return surface (down to ~-10%); the mean-reversion label doesn’t remove that tail (known). Inferred: SPY’s IV surface keeps the low-strike downside wing elevated (~30–40%), so macro shocks are priced (inferred). If uncertain next CPI/Fed/EM FX turns hawkish (uncertain), multiple compression could drive -8% to -18%.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 38%: +0–6% range (AVES surface brightest ridge for 1–2y; no catalyst; SPY stays mid-IV).
2. 30%: +8–15% rebound (risk-on + EM value bid; falsify: AVES rel vs EEM >+10% in 3mo).
3. 22%: -8–-18% risk-off (Fed/dollar hawkish; SPY downside IV wing stays hot).
4. 10%: -18%+ China/EM shock (FX/geopolitics; falsify: China CDS +200bp/30d).

June 04, 2026