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BBWI Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: BBWI's recent product innovation and positive holiday sales sentiment could support price recovery. The backwardation in the volatility term structure implies potential for near-term support, encouraging bullish interest as implied volatility decreases.



Bearish Case: High put option volume and backwardation in implied volatility suggest market uncertainty. Combined with historical mean-reverting behavior and ongoing retail challenges, BBWI may face downward pressure in the short term.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Holiday sales rise (50%).

2. Retail crime pressures price (30%).

3. Stable earnings lead to price stability (20%).



Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish debit spread due to term structure backwardation: buy BBWI $38 call, sell BBWI $40 call, expiring Feb 2025. Exploit declining near-term implied volatility for high reward:risk, leveraging improved sales sentiment and backing by historical data.


January 17, 2025


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