BCS Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BCS's adoption of digital initiatives shows promising gains, supported by a near-term positive trend in historical returns and a substantial increase over preceding years, indicating continued investor confidence.




Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and reputational challenges, coupled with high implied volatility, suggest potential downside risks. Recent outages and legal controversies could erode investor trust.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Growth in digital transformation enhancing efficiency (60%)
  • Regulatory impact leading to decline (40%)
  • M&A activity boosting stock (30%)
  • Continued reputational damage (25%)




Trading Oracle: Adopt a Bearish Long Volatility strategy by buying OOTM put options. Current high IV and potential downside from reputational risks make it prudent to hedge against sudden drops, utilizing the existing volatility surface.



March 18, 2025


Barclays Forecast

BCS        Barclays











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BCS



CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.96)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.96)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (0.96)


SAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAP  Sap SE (0.95)


ADPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADPT  Adaptive Biotechnologies (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BCS



RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.0)


AMH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMH  American Homes 4 Rent (-0.01)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.02)


UBER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBER  Uber (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BCS



CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (-0.89)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.9)


DOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOW  Dow (-0.9)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.9)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.93)









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