STLD Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: STLD's resilience and strategic expansions foster optimism, supported by strong earnings and a mean-reverting price trend. Current low implied volatility offers attractive entry points for growth. HeliumHelium




Bearish Case: Persistently high inventories and potential demand slowdown due to macroeconomic pressures present downside risks. Backwardation in implied volatility indicates investor uncertainty. HeliumHelium




Potential Outcomes: Economic resilience fuels 40% price recovery. 40% chance of price stagnation due to cyclicality. 20% economic downturn leads to reduced demand. HeliumHelium




Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: buy $130 call, sell $140 call for March 2025. Leveraging backwardation in volatility, target mean-reversion trend over 2 months. Strong earnings and strategic expansions back potential gains with high reward:risk. No fluff, maximize alpha.



January 22, 2025


Steel Dynamics Forecast

STLD        Steel Dynamics
















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