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BLMN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Increased consumer spending and a positive twist on earnings could lead to a price rebound to $15-$16, supported by elevated call volumes indicating bullish sentiment amid a stabilizing market.



Bearish Case: Persisting economic challenges in casual dining and high implied volatility may push BLMN down to $12, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability and consumer demand.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Rally to $15 (30% chance) driven by improved earnings.


2. Drop to $12 (40% chance) due to weak consumer demand.


3. Stabilization around $14 (20% chance) if market sentiment improves.


4. Decline to $10 (10% chance) amid high inflation and cost pressures.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bull call spread by buying $12.50 call and selling $15.00 call for January 2025. It offers favorable risk/reward with a potential profit of up to 231% if price rebounds while limiting downside risk, supported by a well-calibrated implied volatility backdrop.


November 23, 2024


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BLMN        Bloomin Brands

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DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (0.93)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.93)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BLMN


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (-0.0)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (-0.01)


EXPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXPD  Expeditors International Of Washington (-0.02)


TRMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRMD  TORM (0.02)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BLMN


WPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPM  Wheaton Precious Metals (-0.85)


MO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MO  Altria (-0.85)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.86)


SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (-0.88)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (-0.88)







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