BMI Forecast


Bullish Case: BMI's strong historical returns, solid fiscal performance, and continued demand for high-margin control products provide a promising long-term outlook. Institutional holdings and improving earnings estimates support further growth.


Bearish Case: High current valuation, mean-reverting tendencies, and recent downgrades pose clear downside risks. Backwardation in the term structure suggests heightened short-term volatility. Lower utility spend could hamper growth.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Growth outperformance and breakout above $220 driven by strong Q2 earnings (40%),

2) Moderate growth validating current price around $196 (35%),

3) Market reassessment or broader economic issues lead to significant downturn below $150 (25%).


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish diagonal put spread. Short the Aug 16, 2024, $170 Put and long the Nov 15, 2024, $190 Put to capitalize on near-term backwardation and potential mean reversion. This trade offers a high reward-to-risk ratio, leveraging volatility and time decay profitably.


July 16, 2024


Badger Meter Forecast

BMI      Badger Meter











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BMI



DHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHR  Danaher (0.83)


PRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRM  Perimeter Solutions SA (0.82)


BOOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOOT  Boot Barn (0.81)


HUMA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUMA  Humacyte (0.81)


TCOM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TCOM  Trip.com (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BMI



SUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUN  Sunoco (0.0)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.0)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.0)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.0)


PLNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLNT  Planet Fitness (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BMI



RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.62)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.62)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.65)


IONS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONS  Ionis Pharmaceuticals (-0.65)


DAVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAVA  Endava plc (-0.66)





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