BTI Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Positive market response to BTI's reduced-risk products could drive revenue growth. Investors may regain confidence, spurred by increasing non-combustible sales amid stabilizing regulatory conditions.




Bearish Case: Increased regulatory scrutiny and ongoing declines in traditional cigarette sales could further pressure profitability, leading to a downward spiral in stock performance amidst rising investor skepticism.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Successful non-combustible product adoption: 45%
  • Continued decline in cigarette sales: 30%
  • Regulatory pressures impacting growth: 25%




Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish put credit spread by selling $37 puts and buying $35 puts, capitalizing on positive volatility edge with a 75% market odds of profit. This strategy can leverage high current IV while capturing premium and positioning for potential stabilization in price.



December 17, 2024


British American Tobacco Forecast

BTI        British American Tobacco











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