Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: BWA’s pivot to electric vehicle components amidst high strategic investments and acquisitions presents robust growth potential, capable of driving significant price recovery as market sentiment improves.

Bearish Case: Concerns around BWA’s execution speed in the EV transition coupled with persistent insider selling may hinder recovery, suggesting possible continued downside movement in stock price.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30%: Strong upward momentum driven by improved EV sales and strategic partnerships.
• 25%: Continued decline due to insider selling and market skepticism around EV transition.
• 20%: Neutral trading environment characterized by mixed earnings guidance.
• 25%: High volatility driven by market reactions to upcoming earnings reports.

Trading Oracle: Consider purchasing short-dated bullish debit spreads targeting BWA $35.00 calls given high implied volatility and favorable market conditions. This can capture potential gains from any positive catalysts while protecting against downside risks. Aim for earnings-driven volatility spikes in late December.

December 19, 2024