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CAL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A positive outlook arises from CAL's stability in implied volatility (around 40%) and the potential for a rebound in stock price following recent significant declines. If macroeconomic factors align favorably, CAL could approach its historical highs, suggesting upside potential around 25% in the next quarter.



Bearish Case: Conversely, high implied volatility signals market skepticism, with bearish option activity predominating. The potential for continued market downturn and stagnation trends in CAL's growth could lead to further declines, with downside risks of 15-20% if recent performance issues persist.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rebound with optimistic earnings: 30%.

2. Continued declines due to market skepticism: 25%.

3. Moderate recovery driven by strategic initiatives: 20%.

4. Unforeseen macroeconomic challenges: 25%.



Trading Oracle: A debit spread on CAL January 2025 options, targeting the $30 call while selling the $35 for downside protection, capitalizes on both the current volatility and forecasted price recovery. Given the bullish sentiment and limited downside risk, probability of profit remains high in this structured trade with a favorable risk-reward profile.


October 27, 2024


Caleres Forecast

CAL        Caleres

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAL


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (0.8)


GSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSK  Glaxosmithkline (0.79)


IQV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IQV  IQVIA (0.75)


  FERG   (0.74)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAL


OHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OHI  Omega Healthcare Investors (0.0)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.0)


XLRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLRE  Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.0)


LNTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNTH  Lantheus (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAL


EXTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXTR  Extreme Networks (-0.66)


SABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SABR  Sabre (-0.7)


LSPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LSPD  Lightspeed Commerce Inc (Sub Voting) (-0.71)


SSRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSRM  SSR Mining (-0.72)


LEU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEU  Centrus Energy (-0.74)







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