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CARR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Carrier's strategic expansions and favorable sentiment may drive steady growth with implied volatility decreasing, indicating market stability.

Bearish Case: High put volume and geopolitical tensions suggest potential downside; recent flat price action supports this cautious outlook.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of steady growth due to strategic expansions; 50% chance of flat trading; 15% chance of decline from external pressures.

Trading Oracle: Use bullish long volatility debit spreads, buying 03/21/2025 $67.50 calls and selling $70 calls. Target March expiry with declining implied volatility, aligning with strategic expansions. High reward:risk and probability of profit.

January 10, 2025

Carrier Forecast

CARR Carrier

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CARR

AFL Aflac (0.95)

TT Trane (0.94)

CLH Clean Harbors (0.94)

SO Southern (0.93)

PNW Pinnacle West (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CARR

CMC Commercial Metals (-0.01)

LCID Lucid (0.01)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (0.01)

FCX Freeport-McMoRan (0.02)

CZR Caesars Entertainment (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CARR

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.84)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.85)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.86)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.89)

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