CAT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CAT's strategic investments in technology and infrastructure position it for growth, supported by relatively low implied volatility.




Bearish Case: High market valuation and economic uncertainties present risks for CAT, which is vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued growth from infrastructure investments (60%).
  • Market correction due to macroeconomic uncertainties (30%).
  • Sudden volatility from unexpected events (10%).




Trading Oracle: Deploy Bullish Short Volatility. Implied volatility is stable, and historical trends support selling ATM puts while buying OOTM puts. Aims to capitalize on premium decay, leveraging stable volatility patterns.



May 04, 2025


Caterpillar Forecast

CAT        Caterpillar











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAT



HRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRI  Herc (0.89)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.82)


BANC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BANC  Banc of California (0.8)


CF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CF  CF Industries (0.8)


VB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VB  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAT



APG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APG  APi (0.0)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.0)


BHP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHP  BHP Group Limited (-0.0)


AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (-0.0)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAT



AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.55)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.56)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.59)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.64)


SPDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPDN  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares (-0.69)









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