CDNA Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent positive studies (SHORE, Nature Medicine) on HeartCare and AlloView, along with increased adoption and Medicare coverage, may drive significant revenue growth, supporting a bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: Lingering legal issues with Natera, potential injunctions, and historical volatility suggest a high-risk environment that could lead to further price declines and financial strain.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% Legal setbacks worsen [Helium% estimate adapted to recent negativity].

2. 35% Increased product adoption boosts revenue [60%, AI forecast, adjust to observed trends].

3. 15% Neutral outcome leads to stagnation [Yahoo%-20%, balancing uncertainty].

4. 10% Major adverse or positive breakthrough [Yahoo%, always considering outliers].


Trading Oracle: Short-term (1-2 months) bearish outlook: Trade credit spreads on August '24 CDNA 10.00 Puts. Medium volatility with high downside risk supports this approach, ensuring a positive edge and high reward-to-risk ratio. Monitor closely for market shifts.


June 20, 2024


Caredx Forecast

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