Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: CDNA's recent revenue growth, partly driven by improved Medicare coverage, suggests a positive market outlook. High call option volume signals strong bullish sentiment, supported by potential gains from the MediGo acquisition, indicating room for price recovery.

Bearish Case: CDNA faces significant legal hurdles and ongoing Medicare billing issues that may constrain revenue growth. The high ratio of implied volatility in puts compared to calls suggests heightened market concern about potential downturns, implying bearish investor sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance that Medicare coverage enhancements improve revenue significantly.

2. 30% probability ongoing legal issues depress shares further.

3. 20% chance of innovative product launches catalyzing growth and stabilizing prices.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying the November 2024 22.50 Calls and selling the 30.00 Calls, given their favorable implied volatility. This strategy allows for upside potential with limited risk while catering to an anticipated positive earnings impact. Aim to capitalize on projected price movement without excessive downside exposure.

November 05, 2024