IGV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: The current flat IGV implied volatility indicates potential for a reversal; if software sector earnings exceed expectations, a price rally towards $90 is likely, supported by historical mean-reverting trends.


Bearish Case: Despite bullish pressures, the substantial drop from recent highs and increasing regulatory scrutiny poses risks; should market confidence wane, a decline to the $75 level is feasible, reflecting loss of optimism.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of recovery to $90 driven by strong earnings.

2) 30% chance of sideways trading around $83.

3) 20% chance of downward pressure to $75 due to macroeconomic factors.

4) 10% chance of a sharp drop below $70 due to tech disruption.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance: execute a short volatility strategy by selling $82 puts and purchasing two $77 puts expiring in 22 days. Market perceives 73% profit odds while Helium indicates 74%. Risk minimal with a return of risk ratio of 1:0.1.


July 26, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector Forecast

IGV      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IGV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.55)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IGV



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.55)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IGV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.55)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.8)





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