Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: CE might see upward price pressure due to positive sentiment around the IoT market, historical return patterns indicating a recovery, and a favorable implied volatility forecast suggesting stabilizing investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Heightened market uncertainty, indicated by elevated implied volatility and recent price decline, could lead to continued bearish trends, especially amid potential regulatory pressures and increased competition in the sector.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% probability of a moderate rebound due to improved market conditions.

2. 30% chance of stagnation due to strong competition.

3. 10% likelihood of sharp declines due to unforeseen geopolitical events or legal regulations.

Trading Oracle: Implement a strategic debit spread using CE 80C and 85C options. This approach maximizes upside potential with a 75% probability of profit while managing risk amidst current volatility. With volatility expected to stabilize, aim for a medium-term outlook, monitoring market conditions closely for any shifts.

December 01, 2024