CENX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: CENX benefits from clean energy investment and strong aluminum demand, enhancing financial outlook.


Bearish Case: Aging assets, high capex, and economic headwinds could limit growth, risking sharp corrections.


Potential Outcomes:

1) CENX reaches $18.5 (45%).

2) CENX declines to $14.5 (30%).

3) CENX trades near $16.0 (25%).


Trading Oracle: Trade a bearish credit spread: sell 3 $16 puts, buy 4 $15 puts expiring August 2024. Targets moderated downside, leveraging mean reversion, with a high probability of profit (~73%).


July 20, 2024


Century Aluminum Forecast

CENX      Century Aluminum











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CENX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CENX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CENX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.93)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)





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