Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: CENX may benefit from favorable economic conditions and continued demand for aluminum, potentially supported by infrastructure initiatives. With the recent increase in call option activity, the bullish sentiment corresponds with the firm's growth potential in clean energy projects.

Bearish Case: Despite recent price rises, CENX faces significant risks from economic downturns, environmental regulations, and high operating costs. The bearish sentiment surged in recent volatility spikes, indicating increased likelihood of price corrections and challenges ahead for the company.

Potential Outcomes:

1) CENX rises by 10% due to expansion news (40% chance).

2) Stabilizes around $17 due to sustained demand (35% chance).

3) Declines 5% amid economic headwinds (25% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a double bull call spread by buying $17 calls and selling $19 calls expiring in March 2025, leveraging high implied volatility for potential upside gains. This strategy offers a manageable risk-reward profile while capitalizing on anticipated price stabilization and growth.

November 03, 2024