CHD Forecast


Bullish Case: The enduring strength of CHD's brands and steady growth trajectory support long-term bullish sentiment. Historical price patterns show a stable uptrend, adding confidence.




Bearish Case: High mean reversion signals and elevated put option volumes suggest caution. Market volatility and potential saturation could cap growth, exposing downside risk.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Continues mean reversion lower: 55%.

2. Stagnates near current levels: 35%.

3. Breakout above $110: 10%.




Trading Oracle: Given the flat implied volatility and CHD's current price action, consider a credit spread. Short $110 call, buy $115 call expiring in 30 days to capitalize on stagnant trends and collect premium. High reward-to-risk ratio with positive edge via mean reversion.



February 14, 2025


Church & Dwight Co. Forecast

CHD        Church & Dwight Co.

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