LCID Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Lucid's technological advancements and potential support from Saudi PIF offer some hope. The upcoming launch of the Gravity SUV could catalyze demand and an eventual stock price recovery.


Bearish Case: Ongoing production issues, high cash burn, and intense competition from established players like Tesla may continue to drag LCID down. Recent job cuts and financial struggles further elevate risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful Gravity SUV launch, boosting stock (20%).

2. Continued production and financial struggles, driving stock lower (60%).

3. Acquisition or buyout by Saudi PIF (20%).


Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility, adopt a bearish stance with a short-term credit spread. Specifically, trade the $3/$5 call spread expiring in ~140 days. This strategy, identified by Helium, has a 69% edge, favorable R/R, and exploits the current vol surface.


June 30, 2024










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CHPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHPT  ChargePoint (0.96)


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MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.95)


LAZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAZR  Luminar (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LCID



DBRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBRG  DigitalBridge (0.0)


TEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEAM  Atlassian (-0.0)


CVLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVLG  Covenant Logistics (0.0)


CLFD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLFD  Clearfield (0.0)


BSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSY  Bentley Systems (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LCID



NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.92)


GEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEO  Geo Group (-0.93)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.93)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.93)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (-0.94)





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