Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: CHY may benefit from renewed institutional interest and a potential stabilization in economic conditions, potentially driving prices above $13 owing to strong dividend appeal and historical return patterns indicating long-term gains.

Bearish Case: Ongoing macroeconomic instability, coupled with persistent inflation, could exert downward pressure on CHY, possibly pushing prices below $11, as indicated by recent bearish trends and historical data reflecting short-term losses.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Short-term recovery to $13 (30%).

2. Further decline to $11 (40%).

3. Moderate stability around $12 (30%). These probabilities reflect current market sentiments and historical performance patterns.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a bearish credit spread, focusing on a 30-day outlook as macroeconomic pressures possibly suppress price traction. By selling CHY calls above current levels, you can capitalize on short-term instability while maintaining protection against upward movements.

November 12, 2024