Bullish Case: ADSK at $236.66 sits inside my prior 230–245 range thesis. ADSK’s term structure is backwardated: near-dated IV stays higher while later IV steadies ~mid‑40s, suggesting near-term tail fears fading. The ADSK IV surface’s call side looks comparatively less stressed than puts, and the historical return surface concentrates likelihood in modest moves (mean reversion). With AI/operations narrative support, price drift toward 245–260 becomes plausible if put-IV cools into Jun-18.

Bearish Case: My earlier >15% downside scenario didn’t fully materialize, but the setup still prices asymmetric risk: ADSK’s IV surface retains pronounced put-wing premiums (downside skew) and the term structure remains backwardated into the nearest expiries (Jun-05/Jun-18). With option volume extremely low (1th percentile), signals are noisier, yet failure to reclaim 230–235 would be a falsifier. Then deal/integration and cloud/subscription execution worries could reprice toward 220 and potentially sub-220 tail risk.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 45% Range 230–245: mean-reversion from return surface; invalid if weekly closes <228.
2. 25% Rebound 245–260: falsify via falling put-wing IV and >245 holds.
3. 15% Drop 220–230: put skew persists into Jun-05/Jun-18; close <230.
4. 10% Surge 260–270: sustained call IV + SPY volatility steady/down.
5. 5% Tail <220: term-structure re-backwardates and deep puts keep premium.

June 03, 2026