Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: ADSK's growth in VR and AI, coupled with institutional interest, could drive stock prices higher, supported by a recent trend of rising implied volatility suggesting increased investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Continued market cyclicality and potential confusion from Autodesk's payment model shift pose significant risks, which may result in declining stock performance amid heightened uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased institutional investment (60%).

2. Cyclical downturn impacts sales (40%).

3. Successful tech integration boosts revenue (55%).

4. Ongoing volatility impacts stock stability (50%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish put credit spread selling $312.50 puts and buying $310 puts, targeting ~7 days to expiration. With high implied volatility and market odds of profit over 70%, this strategy fits well for capitalizing on premium decay and ADSK's recovery potential. Aim for parse risk with reward optimizing for short positions.

November 12, 2024