UUP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: UUP benefits from a strong USD amid economic uncertainty, positioning for moderate near-term gains with implied volatilities favoring reduced risk.


Bearish Case: Economic headwinds and weak Fed policy could further diminish USD value, leading to UUP underperformance amidst generally higher uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Base case: UUP stabilizes, range-bound (50%).

2) Bullish: Enhanced economic data, UUP rises moderately (30%).

3) Bearish: Economic disappointments, UUP falls (20%).


Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish short put vertical strategy: sell two $28.0 puts, buy three $27.0 puts, expiring in ~196 days. Strategy boasts a 91% Helium odds of profit, leveraging a positive edge and high reward:risk profile with expected annual returns of 16%.


July 07, 2024


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Forecast

UUP      Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UUP



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.11)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.01)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.45)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UUP



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.01)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.11)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.14)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.45)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UUP



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.11)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.01)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.45)





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