CLMT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: A potential C-Corp conversion could attract institutional investors, enhancing liquidity. Historical performance shows a 288.2% surge in five years, suggesting a potential upside. Recent bullish signals from analysts bolster probabilities of price recovery.


Bearish Case: Despite volatility indicators, CLMT's recent price drop of 23.2% suggests sustained weakness. Mixed analyst ratings and a history of missing EPS targets could lead to further declines. Current market sentiment indicates caution.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increase to $16 (+40% chance).

2. Further decline to $11 (-30% chance).

3. Stabilization near $12 (+25% chance).

4. Investor sentiment shifts towards positive (+5% chance).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread by selling 1x $13 put and buying 2x $10 puts expiring in 22 days. This captures high implied volatility with 76% odds of profit. The trade defines risk and maximizes potential returns from anticipated market corrections.


July 26, 2024


Calumet Specialty Products Forecast

CLMT      Calumet Specialty Products











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CLMT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.22)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.27)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CLMT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.22)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.27)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.46)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CLMT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.22)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.27)





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