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AI CMBS Forecast

Bullish Case: If rate cuts happen as anticipated, CMBS prices could stabilize or appreciate due to lower borrowing costs, which boosts investor confidence and demand.

Bearish Case: High office vacancies and economic uncertainty may exacerbate defaults in subordinate debt, pushing CMBS prices lower as market sentiment deteriorates.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Rate cuts uplift prices (40%);

2. Continued office market struggles lead to defaults (30%);

3. Stable demand for CMBS boosts prices (20%);

4. Geopolitical unrest causes volatility (10%).

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September 24, 2024

iShares CMBS Forecast

CMBS iShares CMBS

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CMBS

BURL Burlington Stores (0.94)

HYD VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck High Yield Muni (0.92)

IBB BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Biotechnology (0.92)

CHKP Check Point Software Technolgies (0.9)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMBS

LIVN LivaNova (-0.0)

HSIC Henry Schein (0.0)

GILD Gilead Sciences (-0.0)

BBAI BigBear.ai (0.0)

REI Ring Energy (0.0)

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Assets that tend to move strongly against CMBS

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FNGR FingerMotion (-0.87)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.91)

DRV Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)

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