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COLB Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent strategic acquisitions improve market position in California, enhancing long-term growth potential. Synergies could drive earnings and boost investor confidence.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and integration challenges from mergers may exacerbate financial distress, exposing COLB to potential downturns, especially amid economic uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance COLB continues mean-reversion near current levels.
20% chance of a bullish breakout driven by effective integration and cost synergies.
20% chance of a downturn due to lingering integration issues and market volatility.

May 14, 2025

Columbia Banking System Forecast

COLB Columbia Banking System

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COLB

MTB M & T (0.97)

PNC PNC Financial Services (0.96)

BANC Banc of California (0.94)

KKR KKR (0.94)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COLB

O Realty Income (-0.0)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (0.01)

CTRA Coterra Energy (-0.01)

TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.01)

HIMX Himax (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COLB

XP XP (-0.56)

SHEL Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.57)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.73)

EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.76)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.78)

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