COST Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Costco's strong membership growth and expansion, combined with low term structure volatility, indicate robust market confidence, suggesting potential price appreciation.




Bearish Case: Rising operational costs and potential market saturation could pressure margins, alongside high valuation concerns and increased competition threatening growth.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 70%: Continued membership growth with stable returns.
  • 20%: Margin pressure from economic conditions.
  • 10%: Operational disruptions causing short-term impacts.



April 20, 2025


Costco Forecast

COST        Costco











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SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.91)


CLBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLBT  Cellebrite DI (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COST



DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (-0.01)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (-0.03)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.03)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (0.03)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COST



AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (-0.88)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.9)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.9)


RCKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCKT  Rocket Pharmaceuticals (-0.9)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.91)









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