COST Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong membership growth, robust sales, and steady historical performance maintain positive investor sentiment.




Bearish Case: Union strike threats and economic pressures could hinder short-term profits, increasing downside risks.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 45%: Continued growth with enhanced membership and sales strategies.
  • 20%: Short-term impact from union strikes.
  • 20%: Margin pressure from increased costs.
  • 15%: Boost from new sales strategies.




Trading Oracle: Implement bullish debit spreads using near-term calls around $960-$980, targeting February expiries given the flat volatility curve. This setup captures expected positive price movement with limited cost, leveraging current bullish momentum and stable implied volatility.



January 22, 2025


Costco Forecast

COST        Costco











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KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.95)


ONON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONON  On (0.95)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.95)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COST



ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


TS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TS  Tenaris S.A. (0.01)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.01)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COST



FDMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDMT  4D Molecular Therapeutics (-0.91)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.91)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.92)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.96)









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