CRTO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Criteo's successful pivot to retail media, strong growth among partnerships like Dollar General, and potential benefits from Google's improved Privacy Sandbox APIs can drive significant revenue and stock price appreciation.


Bearish Case: Persistent insider selling and significant challenges with Privacy Sandbox implementation could lead to substantial revenue declines, as evidenced by recent testing indicating a potential 60% dip in ad revenue sans third-party cookies.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong retail media growth (70%).

2. Privacy changes hurting revenue (60%).

3. Further insider selling (50%).

4. Partnerships boost revenues (40%).

5. Increased competition in retail media (30%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread by buying the $42.5 call and selling the $47.5 call expiring in ~94 days. Leverage favorable implied volatility and strong retail media forecasts to capitalize on an expected upward movement, achieving a high reward-to-risk ratio.


July 17, 2024


Criteo Forecast

CRTO      Criteo











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Uncorrelated Assets

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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CRTO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.74)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.63)





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