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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Coterra Energy's strong reserves, healthy balance sheet, and consistent dividend payouts create a bullish scenario. The current implied volatility is projected to decrease, suggesting potential stability and upward price movement as market sentiment improves.



Bearish Case: Market volatility and increasing uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions could negatively impact Coterra. With put options significantly outpacing calls, bearish sentiment is gaining traction, potentially leading to price declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of continued bullish performance driven by low breakeven prices and robust demand.
  • 25% chance of stagnation due to commodity price fluctuations.
  • 15% risk of significant pullback triggered by geopolitical events or negative earnings surprises.



Trading Oracle: Given current conditions, initiate a bullish credit spread by selling $26 puts and buying $25 puts expiring in about 18 days. This strategy leverages the low implied volatility while offering a potential return of 24% (annualized: 108%). Monitor for upward momentum to capitalize on CTRA's stability.


December 04, 2024


Coterra Energy Forecast

CTRA        Coterra Energy

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