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CTRA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Coterra's strong cash flow, solid dividend yield, and increased call option volumes indicate investor confidence. The term structure shows lower implied volatility over time, suggesting stability and potential price appreciation.



Bearish Case: Heightened implied volatility, alongside recent declines in natural gas prices, may weigh on Coterra's valuation. Market uncertainty is reflected in potential downward pressure, especially if global demand weakens further.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 60% chance of price stabilization as natural gas supplies meet demand.

2) 25% chance of falling prices from supply chain disruptions.

3) 15% chance of volatility spikes driven by geopolitical tensions impacting energy markets.



Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish credit spread: sell the $25.00 call and buy the $26.00 call expiring on Nov 1, 2024. High probability of success (84%), leveraging short-term volatility while keeping risks manageable. Target 23% potential return while benefiting from CTRA’s upward price momentum.


October 24, 2024


Coterra Energy Forecast

CTRA        Coterra Energy

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OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

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X Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   X  United States Steel (-0.0)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (-0.0)


MAXN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAXN  Maxeon Solar (0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CTRA


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VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.79)


YOU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YOU  Clear Secure (-0.79)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.84)


FXF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXF  Rydex Investments - Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc (-0.85)







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