DIV Forecast


Bullish Case: With stability signs in the implied volatility surface and historical returns indicating positive performance over time, DIV could experience upward price movement towards $20, driven by improving market conditions and stronger earnings projections.


Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties and declining historical returns suggest that DIV might struggle, potentially falling below $16. Elevated implied volatility indicates risks that could lead to a loss of investor confidence and further price declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price appreciates to ~$20 (40% chance) due to strong fundamentals.

2. Price remains flat around $18 (30% chance) as investors assess market conditions.

3. Price drops below $16 (30% chance) due to broader market turbulence.


Trading Oracle: Implement a credit spread strategy, focusing on selling high IV options while buying lower strikes for protection. Consider the $19 call and $17 put to capitalize on DIV's neutrality and volatile conditions. This maximizes reward-to-risk with a high probability of profit.


July 24, 2024


Global X Funds - Global X SuperDividend U.S. Forecast

DIV      Global X Funds - Global X SuperDividend U.S.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DIV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.35)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DIV



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.3)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.35)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DIV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.35)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.3)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)





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