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DUG Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A bullish case emerges with potential stabilization in oil prices, supported by high historical returns seen in the DUG return surface for holding periods under two years. With decreasing implied volatility for immediate trades, a price rebound could lead DUG towards $40 levels as investor sentiment shifts.



Bearish Case: Continuing oversupply in the oil market, as implied by high volatility in DUG options, suggests a bearish outlook. The return surface indicates significant declines for short holding periods, pointing towards more downside risk and potential prices below $30 in the near term.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Price Stabilization (25%): Short-term recovery leading DUG towards $39.
  • Continued Downtrend (50%): Persistent oversupply sending prices below $30.
  • Moderate Recovery (25%): Fluctuations around $35 with increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions.



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November 22, 2024


ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas Forecast

DUG        ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DUG


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (0.77)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (0.72)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.66)


ADBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADBE  Adobe (0.63)


YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DUG


BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (0.0)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (0.01)


KTOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KTOS  Kratos Defense & Security (0.01)


RGTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGTI  Rigetti Computing (0.01)


VOYA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOYA  Voya Financial (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DUG


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.71)


TGB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGB  Taseko Mines (-0.72)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.75)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (-0.79)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.83)







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