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DUO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: DUO has potential for speculative growth due to innovation in China's real estate tech sector. Recent flat price action may signify a base for future upward movement.

Bearish Case: Historical performance shows weak returns with occasional high volatility, indicating ongoing downside risks and regulatory challenges in China's tech market.

Potential Outcomes: Continued sideways movement at 40%, driven by market indecisiveness. Slight bullish recovery at 30% due to potential tech innovations. Further decline at 30% influenced by historical patterns and economic constraints.

Trading Oracle: Trade Helium Short Volatility (credit spreads), given the high implied volatility in SPY and DUO's flat action. Focus on a 1-2 month outlook to capture potential downward pressure with a high reward:risk. Ensure fast adjustments to changes in sentiment.

January 26, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DUO

TIGR UP Fintech (0.75)

ZLAB Zai Lab (0.63)

BEKE KE (0.63)

RL Ralph Lauren (0.62)

ABR Arbor Realty (0.58)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DUO

SONY Sony Group Corporation (-0.0)

ASAN Asana (0.0)

FND Floor & Decor (-0.0)

CRNC Cerence (-0.0)

FEZ SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DUO

TALO Talos Energy (-0.48)

NOV NOV (-0.5)

SLDB Solid Biosciences (-0.51)

AVDL Avadel Pharmaceuticals (-0.53)

CAL Caleres (-0.53)

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