EAT Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Brinker's streamlined menu and strong sales momentum enhance growth prospects, buoyed by marketing strategies and improved guest experience.




Bearish Case: Elevated operational costs and sector challenges like labor shortages may curb profit margins, coupled with high implied volatility indicating market skepticism.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of sales-driven upswing in stock prices.
  • 40% chance of stagnation from macroeconomic pressures.
  • 30% chance of declines due to high costs impacting margins.




Trading Oracle: Bearish Short Volatility: Sell ATM call options, buy OTM call options. Chosen due to high IV and flat term structure, providing favorable risk-reward with potential IV collapse advantage.



March 25, 2025


Brinker International Forecast

EAT        Brinker International











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