ETSY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Etsy's unique market position in handmade goods and strong community support can spur growth amid volatility.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and growing competition signal potential declines as regulatory pressures persist.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Global expansion boosts market share (60%).

2. Competition leads to sales decline (30%).

3. Regulatory issues dampen earnings (10%).




Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread strategy, leveraging the high implied volatility and current market backwardation. Sell March OTM calls and buy further OTM calls for protection, targeting a 1-2 month outlook to capture premium decay.



February 14, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ETSY



APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (0.88)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.86)


PK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PK  Park Hotels & Resorts (0.86)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.86)


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ETSY



AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.0)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.01)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.01)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.02)


NEXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEXT  NextDecade (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ETSY



SMMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMMT  Summit Therapeutics (-0.82)


DTE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DTE  DTE Energy (-0.82)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (-0.84)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.84)


INSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSG  Inseego (-0.86)









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