EWY Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: The term structure shows a tendency for decreasing volatility, suggesting a stabilization phase. Additionally, low historical returns and mean reversion create a conducive environment for potential upside recovery.


Bearish Case: The implied volatility surface indicates higher uncertainty at lower strikes, suggesting potential downside. High put trading volumes also signal bearish sentiment, highlighting potential risks ahead.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Neutral market action (40%) given historical mean reversion and AI price forecasts.

2. Further downturns (35%) driven by higher uncertainty at lower strikes.

3. Modest recovery (25%) due to stabilizing volatility and bullish sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish credit spread to leverage mean reversion. Sell August 16, 2024, $62.00 Put; Buy August 16, 2024, $64.00 Put for positive edge and high probability of profit. Outlook: 1 month, positive risk-reward ratio driven by stabilizing volatility.


July 03, 2024


iShares MSCI South Korea Forecast

EWY      iShares MSCI South Korea











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EWY



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.62)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.32)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EWY



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.32)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EWY



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.62)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.32)





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