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FAS Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Implied volatility in the FAS options market indicates increased trader expectations of future price movements, favoring a bullish outlook as economic indicators suggest a continued financial sector recovery.



Bearish Case: A high implied volatility spike reflects market uncertainties; thus, any sudden negative economic news could lead to increased volatility and potential price declines for FAS.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued upward momentum to $180 (50% probability) if favorable economic conditions persist.

2. Pullback to $150 (30% probability) due to profit-taking.

3. Stagnation around $160 (20% probability) with mixed market signals.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish call credit spread: sell the $170 call and buy the $175 call expiring in January 2025, capitalizing on high implied volatility while defining risk ahead of potential earnings releases. This leverages current upward momentum with minimized exposure to large moves sideways.


December 15, 2024


Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares Forecast

FAS        Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares

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EWC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWC  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Canada (0.97)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.97)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FAS


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (-0.0)


BE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BE  Bloom Energy (0.03)


CLOU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLOU  Global X Funds - Global X Cloud Computing (0.03)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (0.03)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FAS


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.85)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.86)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.87)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.94)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)







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