FENY Forecast


Bullish Case: Rising institutional investment, a trend of overall positive returns for holding periods up to 2 years, and energy sector resilience due to geopolitical tensions could push FENY higher. [Helium][defenseworld.net]


Bearish Case: Recent high implied volatility in puts, recent price decline, and historical negative correlation between HeliumTrades AI forecast and realized price suggest potential downside. [Helium][Helium][Helium]


Potential Outcomes:

1. Energy market uptrend due to global events (40%).

2. Decline from recession fears and investor sentiment (35%).

3. Sideways trading on mixed data and unclear macroeconomic signals (25%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish risk reversal strategy due to potential upside and low implied volatility on calls. Sell the FENY 07/19/2024 23.00 Put (IMV 50.3, delta -0.22) and buy the 07/19/2024 25.00 Call (IMV 12.0, delta 0.54). This captures theta decay, low volatility costs, and has high reward:risk.


June 27, 2024


Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Energy Index Forecast

FENY      Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Energy Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FENY



VDE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VDE  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy (1.0)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (1.0)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.98)


ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.98)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FENY



ARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARE  Alexandria Real Estate (0.0)


WEC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WEC  WEC Energy (-0.0)


MAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAT  Mattel (0.0)


SIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIG  Signet Jewelers (0.0)


TERN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TERN  Terns Pharmaceuticals (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FENY



DKL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKL  Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (-0.78)


SOXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOXX  BTC iShares PHLX Semicond (-0.79)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.84)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.86)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.98)





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