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FOUR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A robust earnings report could propel FOUR significantly higher, driven by strong cash flow and increased market share, leading to a breakout above $110. Analyst upgrades support this trajectory.



Bearish Case: Continued market volatility and potential operational challenges may lead to price stagnation or decline, driving FOUR below $95 due to bearish sentiment around the upcoming earnings release.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Positive Earnings Surprise (40%): FOUR exceeds analyst expectations, leading to price surge.
  • Neutral Earnings (30%): Market reacts mildly, maintaining current price levels.
  • Downside Earnings Miss (30%): Poor performance triggers price drop below $95.



Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish debit spread, buying the 12/20/2024 $105 call while selling the $110 call. This strategy capitalizes on implied volatility around 44.9% and targets a moderate upside potential, with a favorable risk/reward ratio. Given low recent volume, maintaining a short-term horizon will be optimal.


December 10, 2024


Shift4 Payments Forecast

FOUR        Shift4 Payments

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FOUR


G Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   G  Genpact (0.86)


TSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSAT  Telesat Corp (0.84)


GENI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GENI  Genius Sports (0.84)


CIBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CIBR  First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity (0.84)


HACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HACK  ETFMG Prime Cyber Security (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FOUR


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.0)


RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (-0.01)


ARKG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKG  ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (-0.01)


HUMA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUMA  Humacyte (0.01)


ON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ON  ON Semiconductor (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOUR


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (-0.75)


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (-0.76)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.79)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.81)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.81)







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