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FOUR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: FOUR's volatility structure indicates strong short-term trader interest. The recent price surge hints at positive earnings or partnerships, suggesting a potential increase if this momentum continues.



Bearish Case: Implied volatility is still high, indicating market unease. Price fluctuations and the potential for missed earnings may lead to downswings, particularly if analysts adjust their forecasts downward.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increases above $105 (40%);

2. Price stabilizes around $100 (35%);

3. Price falls below $90 (25%). Upcoming earnings and market sentiment will heavily dictate outcomes.



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread: buy 1 $100 call and sell 1 $105 call with a near-term expiration. This strategy capitalizes on volatility and could yield significant returns as market sentiment improves. Current IV indicates potential upside movement.


November 13, 2024


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FOUR        Shift4 Payments

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