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FOUR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: FOUR benefits from strong strategic partnerships and increased market share. The current backwardation in volatility suggests short-term optimism, supported by significant call option activity, indicating potential upward momentum.

Bearish Case: The downside risks include competitive pressure and a saturated market, with flat trading volumes and historical mean-reverting tendencies. The backwardation in IV might revert, signaling potential declines if earnings or partnerships disappoint.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increases (35%) due to partnerships or earnings surprises.

2. Stabilizes (40%) amidst mixed market signals.

3. Declines (25%) if economic uncertainties or market saturation impacts.

April 26, 2025

Shift4 Payments Forecast

FOUR Shift4 Payments

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FOUR

AXP American Express (0.94)

PFGC Performance Food (0.94)

LITE Lumentum (0.94)

RCL Royal Caribbean (0.93)

IGV BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FOUR

CZR Caesars Entertainment (-0.0)

DAN Dana (-0.0)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.01)

EIX Edison International (-0.01)

TAL TAL Education (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOUR

VSAT Viasat (-0.8)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.81)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.81)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.83)

DG Dollar General (-0.92)

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