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VSAT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: If Viasat successfully resolves ongoing technical issues, leveraging defense contracts could drive a rally. Historical resilience in operations suggests investor confidence may rebuild, potentially driving price recovery.



Bearish Case: Persistent satellite issues and increased legal scrutiny could exacerbate market skepticism, pushing prices down further. Historical performance shows significant drawdowns, aligning with current underperformance.



Potential Outcomes: Successful issue resolution and leveraging defense contracts could result in significant upward movement (40%). Ongoing issues may exacerbate declines (35%). Legal challenges persist, increasing market wariness (25%).



Trading Oracle: Execute bearish short volatility using credit spreads. Sell 1 $10.0C, buy 2 $13.0C expiring ~29 days. Target downside protection with high implied volatility and positive edge (79% odds of profit).


February 21, 2025


Viasat Forecast

VSAT        Viasat

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CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (0.83)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VSAT


DKL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKL  Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (-0.01)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.01)


DQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DQ  Daqo New Energy (-0.02)


GPRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPRK  Geopark (-0.02)


FCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCX  Freeport-McMoRan (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VSAT


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (-0.85)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (-0.85)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (-0.87)


AGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGX  Argan (-0.87)


MPLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPLX  MPLX (-0.87)







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