VSAT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Viasat could experience increased demand through its defense contracts and recovery from satellite issues, potentially driving stock price upward, especially if short-term catalysts emerge.


Bearish Case: Continued operational failures or legal challenges may further depress investor confidence, risking significant stock declines as concerns over profitability heighten.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 45% chance of resolving satellite issues, stabilizing stock.

2. 30% chance of worsening operational issues leading to declines.

3. 20% chance of navigating legal complications successfully.

4. 5% chance of strategic pivot boosting long-term prospects.


Trading Oracle: Consider a debit spread, buying the VSAT 21.00C (85.9 IV) and selling the VSAT 24.00C (93.8 IV) for August expiry. This leverages high implied volatility for a bullish stance, targeting potential recovery as satellite issues resolve, with positive reward:risk.


July 25, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VSAT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.85)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.53)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.56)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VSAT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.53)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.85)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VSAT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.85)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.53)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.56)





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