FTXL Forecast


Bullish Case: FTXL momentum is supported by increased institutional interest and strong historical return patterns indicating potential rallies towards $100-$105 as semiconductor demand persists.


Bearish Case: Potential macroeconomic headwinds and corrections could push FTXL down to $88-$92, exacerbated by high implied volatility and market uncertainties reflected in recent trends.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Rally to $100-$105 (65%);

2) Correction to $88-$92 (25%);

3) Sideways movement around $95-$100 (10%); driven by historical return likelihoods and market sentiment shifts.


Trading Oracle: Focus on bullish credit spreads, selling puts at strikes around $95-$100. High probability of FTXL staying above $95 due to institutional buying and historical return data, ensuring a favorable reward:risk ratio.


July 25, 2024


First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor Forecast

FTXL      First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FTXL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FTXL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FTXL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)





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