GCI Forecast


Bullish Case: If Gannett successfully revises its digital strategy and wins ongoing lawsuits, increasing ad revenue and readership, GCI might see significant rebound over the next 1-2 years, driven by enhanced content partnerships and market positioning.


Bearish Case: Continued losses in court, particularly against Google, could exacerbate Gannett's financial pressures. Decreased ad revenues and negative public perception might further hurt GCI, leading to a sharper decline in stock performance over the next few quarters.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Gannett wins lawsuit (40%) - boosts market confidence;

2. Lawsuit fails (60%) - hampers ad revenue;

3. Digital strategy fails (55%) - continued revenue drops;

4. New partnerships thrive (45%) - increases readership.


Trading Oracle: Consider initiating bull call spreads, buying the $5.00 C and selling the $6.00 C for expiration in Aug 2024. Implied volatility is elevated, favoring a strategy that capitalizes on potential bullish news while keeping risk constrained. High reward:risk with timely exits to manage position effectively.


July 25, 2024


Gannett Forecast

GCI      Gannett











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GCI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.17)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GCI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.48)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.17)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)





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