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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Sally Beauty's cost-saving initiatives and potential AI-driven sales growth might enhance profitability, driving stock price upward. With historically high implied volatility and positive consumer sentiment, there’s a compelling case for a near-term rebound.

Bearish Case: Ongoing economic pressures could hinder consumer spending, particularly impacting discretionary purchases in the retail sector. High historical volatility suggests potential for downside risks, particularly if margins tighten even further due to cost increases.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance of moderate gains as consumer spending improves.

2. 25% chance of continued decline due to persistent economic challenges.

3. 20% flat performance in low volatility scenarios.

4. 20% sharp volatility leading to price swings as uncertainty persists.

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September 25, 2024