GDXJ Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: GDXJ is up 49.2% from two years ago, indicating a robust medium-term trend. Helium bullish risk is significantly higher than bearish risk, and Helium implied vol is lower than market vol, suggesting potential undervaluation.


Bearish Case: Recent data shows GDXJ implied vol term structure is flat with higher vol near-term. Historical returns show frequent underperformance, and Helium uncertainty is lower than market, indicating may decline.


Potential Outcomes: 55% range-bound trading, 30% decline if gold weakens, 15% rally on gold strength. High implied vol near-term suggests mild volatility with potential downward pressure.


Trading Oracle: Optimal Strategy: Bullish short vol debit spreads leveraging long-tail convexity and high probability of profit. Sell 1 $46 put, buy 2 $44 puts expiring in ~7 days. Expected edge: Helium 77% profit odds, annual return: 16%.


July 21, 2024


VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners Forecast

GDXJ      VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GDXJ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.74)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.54)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GDXJ



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.54)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.74)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GDXJ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.74)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.54)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.51)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)





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