Bullish Case: GDXJ's recent uptick and significant gains over the past month signal a strong short-term trend, buoyed by a 30% heavier bullish risk than bearish risk in the options market, suggesting possible upside if market optimism about gold miners continues to grow.


Bearish Case: Despite recent growth, GDXJ's year-over-year and two-year historical performance indicates a longer-term bearish trend. Market Implied Volatility consistently lower than Helium's forecasts suggests market underestimation of risks, potentially leading to sudden corrections.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 62% chance GDXJ remains steady or slightly increases due to bullish market sentiment;

2) 25% chance of a correction if global economic data underperforms;

3) 13% possible spike if gold prices surge unexpectedly.


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April 20, 2024


VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners Forecast

GDXJ        VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with GDXJ



SIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIL  Global X Funds - Global X Silver Miners (0.97)


SILJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SILJ  ETF Managers Group LLC - ETFMG Prime Junior Silver Miners (0.96)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.95)


AEM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEM  Agnico Eagle Mines (0.9)


SA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SA  Seabridge Gold (0.88)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to GDXJ



GTN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTN  Gray Television (0.0)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (-0.0)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (0.0)


ROM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROM  ProShares Ultra Technology (-0.0)


TCOM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TCOM  Trip.com (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against GDXJ



GRPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRPN  Groupon (-0.54)


HDSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HDSN  Hudson Technologies (-0.59)


VRSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRSK  Verisk Analytics (-0.61)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.65)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.9)





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