GECC Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong dividends and insider buys suggest confidence in GECC's future performance. Its shift towards first-lien investments enhances credit quality and income stability. [investing.com], [via.news], [defenseworld.net].


Bearish Case: Historical returns reveal likelihood of negative performance, amplified by negative mean reversion indicators. Price downtrend over multiple timeframes. [Helium], [Helium], [Helium], [Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Dividend Growth (50%): Sustained based on historical issuance.

2. Credit Quality Improvement (30%): Continued shift to first-lien investments.

3. Market Volatility (20%): Negative due to broader economic conditions. [via.news], [defenseworld.net], [Helium].


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish credit spreads (short volatility) given high probability of continued negative returns and mean reversion trends. Set expiration within 90 days. The strategy aims for high reward-to-risk, leveraging the high dividend yield to hedge potential losses.


July 07, 2024


Great Elm Forecast

GECC      Great Elm











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GECC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GECC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GECC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)





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